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ME-Map-1024x935Iran does not have influence over the region’s various Shia actors by default, but is helped by the way the Arab world regimes have historically treated Shia actors in the region.

The “Shi’ite Crescent” has been a self-serving and self-fulfilling prophecy. Since its inception in 1979, never has the Islamic Republic of Iran had such influence and control over a range of state and non-state actors. In Iraq, Iran has unparalleled control over the Shia-dominated state and the country’s range of Shia militias currently fighting so-called Islamic State (IS). Elsewhere, Iranian influence over Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria’s al-Assad regime has been reinforced since the outbreak of conflict in Syria and its transformation into a regionalised sectarian proxy war.

While for Iran it is mostly geostrategic interests that are at stake, for the others it is their survival. IS and its backers in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf have made clear their intent to reverse the Shia ascent in the region and eliminate the Shia community altogether. In other words, Iranian influence in the region has as much to do with the policies and reactions of the Arab world as it does Iran’s own maneuverings. Iran does not have influence over the region’s various Shia actors by default, but is helped by the way the Arab world regimes have historically treated Shia actors in the region.

Shia1Traditionally, they have afforded little political and human rights to their Shia constituents. They have also treated their Shia communities as part of broader regional problems, particularly because of the religious and political ties that exist between the region’s different Shia communities. These ties do not necessarily mean that they are conducive to some form of pan-regional Shia alliance but, rather, that the Arab world has identified the region’s Shia communities as threats to their authority.

Iran’s influence in the region today is nothing new. Under the Shah, Iran was also proactive, often embroiled in conflict or disputes with the Arab world and often supporting rebel or revolutionary forces, like the Kurds in Iraq. When Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini ousted the Shah regime and came to power, he called upon the Islamic world to rise up against their autocratic leaders. Whilst some Arab governments, like Syria, Libya and the Palestine Liberation Organization sent their congratulations to him, there was unease among the autocratic governments and monarchies of the broader region.  Khomeini’s Iran permitted the notion that change and revolution was possible. The emergence of the Islamic Republic and the ousting of the Shah showed that the rule and power of despots in the region was not impregnable.

Similarly, the over-arching and generally simplistic narrative emphasizing the link between Shia actors in the region and Iran that we see today pre-dates not only the Syria conflict and the 2003 Iraq war but also the Islamic Republic of Iran itself. Arab world states have historically played on divisions and sensitivities toward Iranian influence; divisions between Arabs and Persians and divisions in Islam between Sunnis and Shias. Anti-government opposition figures, and Shia political movements more generally, have often, if not always, been charged with accusations of being Iranian agents. Under Saddam Hussein and his predecessors, the Iraqi state regularly accused its Shia community of being an Iranian fifth column.

Like the 1979 Iranian revolution, the 2003 invasion of Iraq had an instant impact on the sectarian polarization of the region. In perception, the empowerment of Iraq’s Shia community after 2003 was seen as the empowerment of the Arab world’s other marginalized Shia communities. In much the same way as the Iranian revolution had done in 1979 (although for both Shia and Sunni Arabs), the removal of the Baath regime and the fall of Saddam Hussein seemed to promise the deliverance of the Shia as a whole.

The moment of the falling of Saddam’s statue, with the help of the US Army.

The Shias’ dominance in the new Iraq also concerned the rest of the region because of the considerable extent to which they were organized and mobilized on the basis of their Shia identity. Arab world regimes have historically sought to project, through both coercive and non-coercive means, a vision and image of unity in their effort to legitimize their rule and contain internal dissent. Iraq after 2003, like the Iranian revolution in 1979, has undermined this projection. Further, Iraq’s Shia actors entered the new Iraq with extensive links to Iran, which gave Iraq’s Shia opposition groups, as well as Kurdish groups, extensive support in their effort to overthrow the Baath regime.

The toppling of the Baath regime could have triggered the same sentiments, moreover, as the 1979 Iranian revolution, for the region as a whole, and indeed echo those sentiments triggered by the Arab Spring protests, among a population yearning for democratic and human rights. However, the toxic circumstances that followed the toppling of the Baath regime; the backdrop against which the war took place and the Arab world’s immediate mobilization against the new Iraq, before it was given a chance to repair and rebuild, as well as the narrative that came from Sunni Arab actors in Iraq and beyond, ensured that the fall of Saddam Hussein was seen as the fall of the Sunnis and the rise of the Shia and Iran.

When King Abdullah of Jordon referred to the dangers of a “Shia crescent” in December 2004, one stretching from Damascus to Tehran, passing through Baghdad, the definition of the Iraqi state was still unclear at the time and it was equally unclear whether Iraq would come to be ruled by a Shia alliance. Yet, Iraq’s neighbors in the Arab world had already decided to characterize the new Iraq as an Iranian client-state; its Shia parties, Iranian proxies.

In other words, the post-2003 Iraq did not have to exacerbate sectarianism and polarize the region further along sectarian lines. But in response to this characterization, a flood of jihadists used the Arab world states as a transit point to enter Iraq and wreak carnage, with the acquiescence of the governments of those states. Militants received active support from either Arab world governments or wealthy individuals from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.

As the trajectory of the post-2003 Iraq shows, it was in response to the Sunni mobilization against the new Iraq that the Shias contested elections as a unified bloc, despite their ideological, political and social divisions. This came in 2005, when Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani brought Iraq’s Shia parties and movements together in order to ensure that a resilient Sunni insurgency, backed by the Arab world, did not take them back under Baathist or Sunnis Arab dictatorial rule, which cross-sections of Iraq’s Shia community feared at the time. As one Iraqi Shia noted in 2007: “I would much rather live in a jungle than a Baathist prison,” referring to the chaos and the civil war that had engulfed the country at the time.

Shunned by the Arab world, Iraq’s Shia-dominated state was effectively pushed into Iran’s orbit of influence after 2003. More recently, Iran was the only outside power that deployed advisers and special-forces in the country in June 2014, when ISIS took control of Mosul. While the west dithered as Iraq’s capital, Baghdad, was being targeted by IS, Iran responded almost immediately to a threat that threatened the Iraqi state and the Shia community itself. Iranian support has manifested itself in the form of arms and funds; organizational and technical assistance. That, inevitably, translates into some form of influence and control.

bahraini-shia-protest-against-the-saudi-death-verdict-of-shia-cleric-sh-nemir-al-nemir– Photo: Sunni monarchs back YouTube hate preachers: Anti-Shia.

The post-2003 Sunni Arab rejection of the new Iraq; followed by the sectarian proxy war in Syria and the anti-Shia basis on which IS functions and on which the Arab world states legitimize and strengthen their rule, has created a unifying thread that mobilizes and unites the Shia, despite their own internal divisions. In other words, any Shia dependence on Iran, whether this occurs in Iraq, or Syria – where the Shia Alawites sect is traditionally seen as heretic by most Shias – or in Yemen – where the Houthis belong to a sect of Shia Islam (Zaydism) that is in fact closer to Sunni Islam – is not necessarily a matter of choice or of default, but one of necessity.

This has proved pivotal in bridging the divide that has existed between different sections of the Shia community both within Iraq and in the region. It has also transformed the Shia identity into a powerful galvanizing force, particularly since the rise of IS and the outbreak of conflict in Syria.

King Abdullah IIShias throughout the region retain a strong sense of their national identity and seldom will you meet a Shia that rejects his or her national identity. But with recent conflict in Syria, the rise of IS and the anti Shia sectarian narrative from the Arab world has done is to coalesce the region’s Shia community around the Shia identity, despite their political, social and ideological differences. In other words, the notion of a ‘Shia crescent’ might be a greater reality today than it was before when first asserted by King Abdullah in 2004. But it has been both a self-serving and a self-fulfilling prophecy.

It is correct that the Shia have been marginalized throughout the ME. They have also been murdered quite regularly in Sunni-dominated Pakistan over several decades without any one even bothering to report it in the Western media. What Israel and the Sunni Wahhabi Arab sheikhdoms in the Persian Gulf fear most, is not a nuclear Iran (as they would falsely have us believe) but a politically and economically powerful Iran, an emerging regional superpower.

Unlike the Arab monarchies, Iran has chosen to lead an independent, non-aligned path since the Iranian Revolution of 1979. By supporting the Shia in various parts of the region, it has not only bolstered it’s support among Arab populations, it has also checked Israeli aggression in Lebanon and Syria. It is in fact the first time in Iran’s entire post-Islamic history that it has been successful in creating and maintaining such influence among Arab populations. This is in fact what the Saudis and the Zionists in Israel and the US find most objectionable: Iran’s desire and ability to be become a regional superpower by creating a network of supporters throughout the region.

Many in the West do not realize that the Arab-Persian divide is far greater than the Sunni-Shia Divide. This is a historical fact that is often over-looked in the West. This Arab-Persian rivalry has been a recurring theme in ME history. I believe that it is to Iran’s credit that it has been able to increase its influence in the region by fostering better relations with various Arab groups whose natural inclination would normally be to distrust Persians.

Israel is always very keen to point out that the various Muslim communities in the region hate each other and would like to kill each other at every opportunity. However, the rise of al Quiada, the Taliban and now ISIS have proven that when required, powerful regional groups, whether Arab, Persian or Kurdish, are able to fight off aggression by extremists, even when the most powerful country on earth (the USA) manages to fail over and over again.

The simple fact is, that with Saudi backed Wahhabism – ISIL, Al Qaeda, Boko Haren, Al Shabaab – running wild in the Middle East and Africa, Iran is now seen as a moderate country.

Iran’s leaders need the West, and the young people of Iran embrace Western culture, so let us hope that this latest deal leads to a thaw in relations between Iran and the West.

Let us also not forget that the Shia are in a majority in Iraq and Bahrain, where historically they have been treated very badly.






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